Canada Caps Temporary Residents, Expects Recession in 2024: 

Immigration Minister Marc Miller says he will assess the amount of overseas students and other non-permanent residents entering Canada as political tensions increase over the housing crisis and immigration.

Miller remarked in an interview with Rosemary Barton Live on January 14 that the relationship between housing and immigration is complex, and it was discussed at the cabinet table when setting annual quotas for the amount of people entering the nation.

"Housing has and continues to be a concern, especially in a post-COVID scenario with rising interest rates, supply challenges, and affordability issues," Miller told CBC's chief political correspondent Rosemary Barton Sunday.

"It isn't immigrants that raised interest rates, but volume is volume and it's something that we need to look at." Miller said:

Canada is confronting serious housing affordability challenges. The Conservative opposition has attempted to blame the Liberal administration by linking government deficits to rising interest rates.

"My common-sense plan is to cut waste and cap spending to balance the budget so we can have more affordable interest rates," Conservative Leader Pierre Poilievre said at a Thunder Bay, Ontario, rally on Friday.

Temporary Residents are Scapegoats.

In November, the government announced that, despite earlier increases to its annual immigration quotas, it will maintain a goal of 500,000 new permanent residents by 2026.

These are still historically high levels of immigration targets, but no targets have ever been established for temporary residents.

Miller also mentioned that his efforts in the future months would be centered on temporary residents.

"I think the challenge with non-permanent resident targets is that there are none," he said, adding that restricting temporary workers might have serious economic effects.

"We have to take a look at that and rein it in in many areas, but we need to be clear about what that means, exactly."

He suggested changing postgraduate work permits or "really controlling the volume" of non-permanent residents.

Miller claimed that the federal government intended to interfere in a housing market in which certain individuals were surrendering long-term suffering for short-term financial gain.

"I don't want to be crass about this, but the federal government is the only actor here not making money off this," he went on to remark.

He stated that some provinces must be willing to make adjustments, and he looked forward to working with them.

"We need to inform them that the bar is closed, and we need to figure this out. And it is shared jurisdiction; if they do not comply, the federal government is prepared to take action."

Blocking temporary resident admissions may worsen the recession in Canada.

Over the last year, Canada's population has increased dramatically, owing primarily to foreign workers and international students.

However, as the federal government considers barring non-permanent residents (NPR), recent Desjardins research suggests that such a step would "deepen the recession expected in 2024."

Randall Bartlett, senior director of Canadian economics at Desjardins, released the analysis on Wednesday, predicting that the number of NPRs will naturally fall as the economy slows.

According to current baseline forecasts, Bartlett expects real GDP growth will decelerate to 0.1% in 2024, down from 1.1% in the previous year.

However, if the federal government implements new measures to reduce NPR admissions to zero, the report predicts that Canada's real GDP will fall by 0.7% in 2024.

Furthermore, such a move may "blunt the subsequent recovery" from the recession, resulting in lower potential GDP.

"As such, caution is warranted on the part of policymakers to minimize the economic downside of slowing newcomer arrivals too quickly," Bartlett said in his research study.

If Canada increased its NRP admissions from its current rate, Bartlett predicts the GDP would rise by 1% this year and significantly more in subsequent years.

However, the study warns that "sustained high levels of NPR admissions" may strain house affordability and rise inflation, prompting the Bank of Canada to keep interest rates higher for longer.

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